Climate Change Science and Adaptation

3.

Climate Modeling and Future Projections

3.1.

Climate Model Fundamentals

3.1.1.

Model Types and Hierarchy

3.1.1.1.

Energy Balance Models

3.1.1.1.1.

Simple Climate Models

3.1.1.1.2.

3.1.1.2.

General Circulation Models

3.1.1.2.1.

Atmospheric GCMs

3.1.1.2.1.1.

Primitive Equations

3.1.1.2.1.2.

Numerical Methods

3.1.1.2.2.

3.1.1.2.2.1.

3.1.1.2.2.2.

Thermohaline Circulation

3.1.1.2.3.

3.1.1.2.3.1.

Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling

3.1.1.2.3.2.

3.1.1.3.

Earth System Models

3.1.1.3.1.

Biogeochemical Cycles

3.1.1.3.2.

Carbon Cycle Models

3.1.1.3.3.

Vegetation Dynamics

3.1.1.3.4.

Atmospheric Chemistry

3.1.1.4.

Regional Climate Models

3.1.1.4.1.

Dynamical Downscaling

3.1.1.4.2.

Nested Grid Approaches

3.1.1.4.3.

Statistical Downscaling

3.1.2.

Model Components and Processes

3.1.2.1.

Atmospheric Processes

3.1.2.1.1.

Radiation Schemes

3.1.2.1.2.

Convection Parameterization

3.1.2.1.3.

Cloud Microphysics

3.1.2.2.

Ocean Processes

3.1.2.2.1.

3.1.2.2.2.

Sea Ice Dynamics

3.1.2.2.3.

Marine Biogeochemistry

3.1.2.3.

Land Surface Processes

3.1.2.3.1.

Surface Energy Balance

3.1.2.3.2.

3.1.2.3.3.

Vegetation Modeling

3.1.2.4.

Ice Sheet Modeling

3.1.2.4.1.

3.1.2.4.2.

3.1.2.4.3.

Ice-Climate Interactions

3.1.3.

Model Resolution and Grids

3.1.3.1.

Spatial Resolution

3.1.3.1.1.

Horizontal Grid Spacing

3.1.3.1.2.

Vertical Levels

3.1.3.1.3.

Resolution Trade-offs

3.1.3.2.

Temporal Resolution

3.1.3.2.1.

3.1.3.2.2.

Integration Periods

3.1.3.3.

3.1.3.3.1.

3.1.3.3.2.

Unstructured Grids

3.1.3.3.3.

3.1.4.

Parameterization

3.1.4.1.

Sub-grid Scale Processes

3.1.4.1.1.

3.1.4.1.2.

3.1.4.1.3.

Cloud Formation

3.1.4.2.

Parameter Uncertainty

3.1.4.2.1.

Tuning Procedures

3.1.4.2.2.

Sensitivity Analysis

3.1.4.3.

Process Representation

3.1.4.3.1.

Physical Approximations

3.1.4.3.2.

Computational Constraints

3.2.

Model Evaluation and Validation

3.2.1.

Observational Comparisons

3.2.1.1.

Historical Climate Simulation

3.2.1.2.

Reanalysis Data

3.2.1.3.

Satellite Observations

3.2.2.

Model Performance Metrics

3.2.2.1.

Statistical Measures

3.2.2.2.

Pattern Correlation

3.2.2.3.

3.2.3.

Multi-model Ensembles

3.2.3.1.

Model Intercomparison Projects

3.2.3.2.

Ensemble Statistics

3.2.3.3.

Model Weighting

3.3.

Climate Scenarios and Pathways

3.3.1.

Scenario Development

3.3.1.1.

Storyline Approaches

3.3.1.2.

Quantitative Pathways

3.3.1.3.

Scenario Families

3.3.2.

Representative Concentration Pathways

3.3.2.1.

3.3.2.1.1.

Low Emission Scenario

3.3.2.1.2.

Mitigation Requirements

3.3.2.2.

3.3.2.2.1.

Moderate Emission Scenario

3.3.2.2.2.

Stabilization Pathway

3.3.2.3.

3.3.2.3.1.

High Emission Scenario

3.3.2.3.2.

Peak and Decline

3.3.2.4.

3.3.2.4.1.

Very High Emission Scenario

3.3.2.4.2.

Business as Usual

3.3.3.

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

3.3.3.1.

SSP1 - Sustainability

3.3.3.1.1.

3.3.3.1.2.

Reduced Inequality

3.3.3.2.

SSP2 - Middle of the Road

3.3.3.2.1.

Moderate Progress

3.3.3.2.2.

Mixed Development

3.3.3.3.

SSP3 - Regional Rivalry

3.3.3.3.1.

Fragmented World

3.3.3.3.2.

Security Concerns

3.3.3.4.

SSP4 - Inequality

3.3.3.4.1.

Stratified Societies

3.3.3.4.2.

Technology Gaps

3.3.3.5.

SSP5 - Fossil-fueled Development

3.3.3.5.1.

Rapid Economic Growth

3.3.3.5.2.

High Energy Demand

3.3.4.

Scenario-Model Matrix

3.3.4.1.

SSP-RCP Combinations

3.3.4.2.

Policy Assumptions

3.3.4.3.

Feasibility Constraints

3.4.

Future Climate Projections

3.4.1.

Temperature Projections

3.4.1.1.

Global Mean Temperature Change

3.4.1.1.1.

3.4.1.1.2.

Time of Emergence

3.4.1.2.

Regional Temperature Patterns

3.4.1.2.1.

Arctic Amplification

3.4.1.2.2.

Land-Ocean Contrasts

3.4.1.3.

Seasonal Changes

3.4.1.3.1.

3.4.1.3.2.

Summer Extremes

3.4.2.

Precipitation Projections

3.4.2.1.

Global Precipitation Changes

3.4.2.1.1.

Mean Precipitation

3.4.2.1.2.

Seasonal Patterns

3.4.2.2.

Regional Precipitation Patterns

3.4.2.2.1.

Wet-Dry Contrasts

3.4.2.2.2.

Monsoon Changes

3.4.2.3.

Extreme Precipitation

3.4.2.3.1.

Heavy Rainfall Events

3.4.2.3.2.

Drought Projections

3.4.3.

Sea Level Rise Projections

3.4.3.1.

Global Mean Sea Level

3.4.3.1.1.

Thermal Expansion

3.4.3.1.2.

Ice Mass Contributions

3.4.3.2.

Regional Sea Level Changes

3.4.3.2.1.

3.4.3.2.2.

Gravitational Effects

3.4.3.3.

Ice Sheet Contributions

3.4.3.3.1.

Greenland Contribution

3.4.3.3.2.

Antarctic Contribution

3.4.3.4.

Coastal Impacts

3.4.3.4.1.

Storm Surge Changes

3.4.3.4.2.

Coastal Flooding

3.4.4.

Extreme Event Projections

3.4.4.1.

Temperature Extremes

3.4.4.1.1.

Heatwave Intensity

3.4.4.1.2.

Cold Extreme Changes

3.4.4.2.

Precipitation Extremes

3.4.4.2.1.

3.4.4.2.2.

Drought Severity

3.4.4.3.

Storm Projections

3.4.4.3.1.

Tropical Cyclones

3.4.4.3.2.

Extratropical Storms

3.4.4.4.

Compound Events

3.4.4.4.1.

3.4.4.4.2.

Coastal Flooding

3.5.

Uncertainty in Climate Projections

3.5.1.

Sources of Uncertainty

3.5.1.1.

Scenario Uncertainty

3.5.1.1.1.

Emission Pathways

3.5.1.1.2.

Socioeconomic Development

3.5.1.2.

Model Uncertainty

3.5.1.2.1.

Structural Differences

3.5.1.2.2.

Parameter Uncertainty

3.5.1.3.

Internal Variability

3.5.1.3.1.

Natural Climate Fluctuations

3.5.1.3.2.

Chaotic Behavior

3.5.2.

Uncertainty Quantification

3.5.2.1.

Probabilistic Projections

3.5.2.2.

Confidence Intervals

3.5.2.3.

Likelihood Statements

3.5.3.

Uncertainty Communication

3.5.3.1.

Uncertainty Language

3.5.3.2.

Risk Assessment

3.5.3.3.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

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