Forecasting in Business and Economics

  1. Quantitative Forecasting: Causal Models
    1. Simple Linear Regression
      1. Model Specification
        1. Dependent and Independent Variables
          1. Linear Relationship Assumption
          2. Estimating Coefficients
            1. Ordinary Least Squares
              1. Method of Moments
              2. Goodness-of-Fit
                1. R-squared
                  1. Adjusted R-squared
                    1. Standard Error of Regression
                    2. Hypothesis Testing
                      1. t-tests for Coefficients
                        1. F-test for Overall Model
                          1. Confidence Intervals
                          2. Regression Assumptions
                            1. Linearity
                              1. Independence
                                1. Homoscedasticity
                                  1. Normality
                                2. Multiple Linear Regression
                                  1. Incorporating Multiple Predictor Variables
                                    1. Matrix Representation
                                      1. Multicollinearity
                                        1. Detection Methods
                                          1. Correlation Matrix
                                            1. Variance Inflation Factor
                                            2. Remedies
                                              1. Variable Selection
                                                1. Ridge Regression
                                                  1. Principal Components
                                                2. Variable Selection Techniques
                                                  1. Stepwise Selection
                                                    1. Forward Selection
                                                      1. Backward Elimination
                                                        1. Best Subset Selection
                                                        2. Model Validation
                                                          1. Cross-Validation
                                                            1. Hold-Out Validation
                                                          2. Using Categorical Variables
                                                            1. Dummy Variables for Seasonality
                                                              1. Dummy Variables for Special Events
                                                                1. Interaction Terms
                                                                  1. Polynomial Terms
                                                                  2. Leading Indicators
                                                                    1. Identifying Leading Indicators
                                                                      1. Lag Structure Determination
                                                                        1. Distributed Lag Models
                                                                          1. Granger Causality Testing
                                                                          2. Time Series Regression
                                                                            1. Trend and Seasonal Components
                                                                              1. Autocorrelated Errors
                                                                                1. Generalized Least Squares
                                                                                  1. Cochrane-Orcutt Procedure
                                                                                  2. Advanced Econometric Models
                                                                                    1. Vector Autoregression
                                                                                      1. Model Structure
                                                                                        1. Estimation Methods
                                                                                          1. Impulse Response Analysis
                                                                                            1. Variance Decomposition
                                                                                            2. Cointegration and Error Correction Models
                                                                                              1. Testing for Cointegration
                                                                                                1. Engle-Granger Test
                                                                                                  1. Johansen Test
                                                                                                  2. Vector Error Correction Model
                                                                                                    1. Error Correction Term
                                                                                                    2. Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models
                                                                                                      1. Lag Selection Criteria
                                                                                                        1. Long-Run and Short-Run Effects
                                                                                                          1. Bounds Testing Approach

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                                                                                                      4. Quantitative Forecasting: Time Series Models

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                                                                                                      6. Evaluating Forecast Accuracy and Performance