Forecasting in Business and Economics

  1. Qualitative Forecasting Methods
    1. Judgmental Forecasting
      1. Nature of Judgmental Forecasting
        1. Strengths and Limitations
          1. When to Use
            1. Cognitive Biases in Judgment
            2. Expert Opinion
              1. Individual Expert Forecasts
                1. Structured Approaches
                  1. Unstructured Approaches
                    1. Expert Selection Criteria
                    2. Panel Consensus
                      1. Group Discussion Methods
                        1. Facilitated Workshops
                          1. Consensus Building Techniques
                        2. The Delphi Method
                          1. Process Steps
                            1. Round Design
                              1. Question Formulation
                              2. Anonymity and Iteration
                                1. Aggregation of Responses
                                  1. Variations of Delphi Method
                                  2. Market Research and Surveys
                                    1. Consumer Surveys
                                      1. Survey Design Principles
                                        1. Sampling Methods
                                          1. Response Rate Optimization
                                          2. Sales Force Composites
                                            1. Collecting Sales Staff Input
                                              1. Aggregating Forecasts
                                                1. Bias Correction
                                                2. Market Testing
                                                  1. Test Market Design
                                                    1. Scaling Up Results
                                                  2. Scenario Planning
                                                    1. Developing Alternative Scenarios
                                                      1. Scenario Construction Methods
                                                        1. Assessing Scenario Probabilities
                                                          1. Implications for Decision-Making
                                                            1. Scenario-Based Forecasting
                                                            2. Historical Analogy
                                                              1. Identifying Comparable Situations
                                                                1. Transferring Insights
                                                                  1. Limitations of Analogical Reasoning
                                                                  2. Cross-Impact Analysis
                                                                    1. Event Interaction Assessment
                                                                      1. Probability Adjustment Methods

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                                                                    2. Data for Forecasting

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                                                                    4. Quantitative Forecasting: Time Series Models