Financial risk modeling | Monte Carlo methods in finance | Actuarial science
Value at risk (VaR) is a measure of the risk of loss for investments. It estimates how much a set of investments might lose (with a given probability), given normal market conditions, in a set time period such as a day. VaR is typically used by firms and regulators in the financial industry to gauge the amount of assets needed to cover possible losses. For a given portfolio, time horizon, and probability p, the p VaR can be defined informally as the maximum possible loss during that time after excluding all worse outcomes whose combined probability is at most p. This assumes mark-to-market pricing, and no trading in the portfolio. For example, if a portfolio of stocks has a one-day 95% VaR of $1 million, that means that there is a 0.05 probability that the portfolio will fall in value by more than $1 million over a one-day period if there is no trading. Informally, a loss of $1 million or more on this portfolio is expected on 1 day out of 20 days (because of 5% probability). More formally, p VaR is defined such that the probability of a loss greater than VaR is (at most) (1-p) while the probability of a loss less than VaR is (at least) p. A loss which exceeds the VaR threshold is termed a "VaR breach". It is important to note that, for a fixed p, the p VaR does not assess the magnitude of loss when a VaR breach occurs and therefore is considered by some to be a questionable metric for risk management. For instance, assume someone makes a bet that flipping a coin seven times will not give seven heads. The terms are that they win $100 if this does not happen (with probability 127/128) and lose $12,700 if it does (with probability 1/128). That is, the possible loss amounts are $0 or $12,700. The 1% VaR is then $0, because the probability of any loss at all is 1/128 which is less than 1%. They are, however, exposed to a possible loss of $12,700 which can be expressed as the p VaR for any p ≤ 0.78125% (1/128). VaR has four main uses in finance: risk management, financial control, financial reporting and computing regulatory capital. VaR is sometimes used in non-financial applications as well. However, it is a controversial risk management tool. Important related ideas are economic capital, backtesting, stress testing, expected shortfall, and tail conditional expectation. (Wikipedia).
What is Value at Risk? VaR and Risk Management
In todays video we learn about Value at Risk (VaR) and how is it calculated? Buy The Book Here: https://amzn.to/37HIdEB Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle What Is Value at Risk (VaR)? Value at risk (VaR) is a calculation that aims to quantify the level of
From playlist Risk Management
Risk Management Lesson 5A: Value at Risk
In this first part of Lesson 5, we discuss Value-at-Risk (VaR). Topics: - Definition of VaR - Loss distribution and confidence level - The normal VaR
From playlist Risk Management
FRM: Parametric value at risk (VaR): Pros & Cons
Here is a quick explanation of parametric value at risk (VaR) as a means to illustrating its strengths/weaknesses. Please note: The essence of parametric VaR is "no data:" while historical data is surely used to select a distribution and calibrate its parameters, a parametric VaR leans on
From playlist Value at Risk (VaR): Introduction
Marginal value at risk (marginal VaR)
This is a review which follows Jorion's (Chapter 7) calculation of marginal value at risk (marginal VaR). Marginal VaR requires that we calculate the beta of a position with respect to the portfolio. For more financial risk videos, visit our website! http://www.bionicturtle.com
From playlist Value at Risk (VaR): Introduction
FRM: Three approaches to value at risk (VaR)
This is a brief introduction to the three basic approaches to value at risk (VaR): Historical simulation, Monte Carlo simulation, Parametric VaR (e.g., delta normal). For more financial risk videos, visit our website at http://www.bionicturtle.com!
From playlist Value at Risk (VaR): Introduction
How do you calculate value at risk? Two ways of calculating VaR
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From playlist Risk Management
QRM L1-1: The Definition of Risk
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From playlist Quantitative Risk Management
Conditional Value at Risk and Stress Testing in Financial Risk Management
I this weeks class we learn about Conditional Value at Risk and Stress Testing. These classes are all based on the book Trading and Pricing Financial Derivatives, available on Amazon at this link. https://amzn.to/2WIoAL0 Check out our website http://www.onfinance.org/ Follow Patrick on t
From playlist Risk Management
Risk Management 5B: Value at Risk (continued) and Expected Shortfall
This is the second part of Lesson 5. Topics: - The VaR for empirical distributions - The Expected Shortfall - Coherence of VaR and ES
From playlist Risk Management
Risk-neutral probabilities (FRM T5-07)
One of the harder ideas in fixed income is risk-neutral probabilities. In this video, I'd like to specifically illustrate, and define, what we mean by risk-neutral probabilities. I will do this in three steps. The first one is just a simple example of a coin toss, where my objective is to
From playlist Market Risk (FRM Topic 5)
Value (VaR) Mapping a fixed-income portfolio (FRM T5-05)
In this video, we walk through an actual case study of Value at Risk (VaR) mapping, specifically as it is illustrated by Phillip Jorion in Chapter 11 of his book, Value at Risk. We will take a two-bond fixed income portfolio. It's going to have a value of 200 million, and we're going to lo
From playlist Market Risk (FRM Topic 5)
Stanford CS229: Machine Learning | Summer 2019 | Lecture 13-Statistical Learning Uniform Convergence
For more information about Stanford’s Artificial Intelligence professional and graduate programs, visit: https://stanford.io/3py8nGr Anand Avati Computer Science, PhD To follow along with the course schedule and syllabus, visit: http://cs229.stanford.edu/syllabus-summer2019.html
From playlist Stanford CS229: Machine Learning Course | Summer 2019 (Anand Avati)
Dependence Uncertainty and Risk - Prof. Paul Embrechts
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From playlist Uncertainty and Risk
FinMath L3-2: Risk-neutral measures and self-financing portfolios
Welcome to Lesson 3 of Financial Mathematics (Part 2). In this second half of the lesson, we discuss important topics like self-financing portfolio, risk neutral measures and their basic properties, and the concept of arbitrage. All these tools are essential in financial mathematics, and t
From playlist Financial Mathematics
Welcome to Quantitative Risk Management (QRM). In this lesson, we play with R to deal with VaR and ES. We show how to compute them empirically, but also in the case of normality. We then show that normality tends to underestimate tail risk, as observable in actual financial data. The pdf
From playlist Quantitative Risk Management
MIT 14.13 Psychology and Economics, Spring 2020 Instructor: Prof. Frank Schilbach View the complete course: https://ocw.mit.edu/14-13S20 YouTube Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLUl4u3cNGP63Z979ri_UXXk_1zrvrF77Q In this video, Prof. Schilbach describes how economics looks
From playlist MIT 14.13 Psychology and Economics, Spring 2020
QRM L2-2: Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall
Welcome to Quantitative Risk Management (QRM). In this video we briefly introduce VaR and ES. Please notice that many concepts are given for granted, and, in case you need more basic details, I refer you to extra videos (check the links appearing on screen). We shall see that ES is always
From playlist Quantitative Risk Management
Undiversified bond value at risk (VaR)
This illustrates the calculation of value at risk (VaR) for a two-bond portfolio.
From playlist Value at Risk (VaR): VaR Mapping
Gilles Pagès: CVaR hedging using quantization based stochastic approximation algorithm
Find this video and other talks given by worldwide mathematicians on CIRM's Audiovisual Mathematics Library: http://library.cirm-math.fr. And discover all its functionalities: - Chapter markers and keywords to watch the parts of your choice in the video - Videos enriched with abstracts, b
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