An optimal decision is a decision that leads to at least as good a known or expected outcome as all other available decision options. It is an important concept in decision theory. In order to compare the different decision outcomes, one commonly assigns a utility value to each of them. If there is uncertainty as to what the outcome will be but knowledge about the distribution of the uncertainty, then under the von Neumann–Morgenstern axioms the optimal decision maximizes the expected utility (a probability–weighted average of utility over all possible outcomes of a decision). Sometimes, the equivalent problem of minimizing the expected value of loss is considered, where loss is (–1) times utility. Another equivalent problem is minimizing expected regret. "Utility" is only an arbitrary term for quantifying the desirability of a particular decision outcome and not necessarily related to "usefulness." For example, it may well be the optimal decision for someone to buy a sports car rather than a station wagon, if the outcome in terms of another criterion (e.g., effect on personal image) is more desirable, even given the higher cost and lack of versatility of the sports car. The problem of finding the optimal decision is a mathematical optimization problem. In practice, few people verify that their decisions are optimal, but instead use heuristics to make decisions that are "good enough"—that is, they engage in satisficing. A more formal approach may be used when the decision is important enough to motivate the time it takes to analyze it, or when it is too complex to solve with more simple intuitive approaches, such as many available decision options and a complex decision–outcome relationship. (Wikipedia).
In this video, you’ll learn strategies for making decisions large and small. Visit https://edu.gcfglobal.org/en/problem-solving-and-decision-making/ for our text-based tutorial. We hope you enjoy!
From playlist Making Decisions
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From playlist Decision Support Systems
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From playlist Machine Learning
Life constantly forces us to make very big and often very painful decisions. When we are next facing such a choice, here is a small exercise that could help us to know our own minds more clearly. For gifts and more from The School of Life, visit our online shop: https://goo.gl/at6c4Y Join
From playlist SELF
Decision Problems - Intro to Algorithms
This video is part of an online course, Intro to Algorithms. Check out the course here: https://www.udacity.com/course/cs215.
From playlist Introduction to Algorithms
Critical Thinking: Navigating Today's Health Crazes
In this video, you’ll learn how critical thinking can help you evaluate health fads. Visit https://edu.gcfglobal.org/en/problem-solving-and-decision-making/ to learn even more. We hope you enjoy!
From playlist Critical Thinking
Priya Donti - Optimization-in-the-loop AI for energy and climate - IPAM at UCLA
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From playlist 2023 Artificial Intelligence and Discrete Optimization
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Hamsa Bastani - Decision-Aware Learning for Global Health Supply Chains - IPAM at UCLA
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Bistra Dilkina: "Decision-focused learning: integrating downstream combinatorics in ML"
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Phebe Vayanos - Integer optimization for predictive & prescriptive analytics in high stakes domains
Recorded 01 March 2023. Phebe Vayanos of the University of Southern California presents "Integer optimization for predictive and prescriptive analytics in high stakes domains" at IPAM's Artificial Intelligence and Discrete Optimization Workshop. Abstract: Motivated by problems in homeless
From playlist 2023 Artificial Intelligence and Discrete Optimization
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A very basic overview of optimization, why it's important, the role of modeling, and the basic anatomy of an optimization project.
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Paul Grigas - Offline and Online Learning for Contextual Stochastic Optimization - IPAM at UCLA
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Elias Khalil - Neur2SP: Neural Two-Stage Stochastic Programming - IPAM at UCLA
Recorded 02 March 2023. Elias Khalil of the University of Toronto presents "Neur2SP: Neural Two-Stage Stochastic Programming" at IPAM's Artificial Intelligence and Discrete Optimization Workshop. Abstract: Stochastic Programming is a powerful modeling framework for decision-making under un
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Shipra Agrawal: Multi-armed bandits and beyond
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From playlist Courses and Series