Technology Foresight and Innovation

  1. The Technology Foresight Process
    1. Process Overview
      1. Linear vs. Iterative Models
        1. Process Customization
          1. Quality Assurance
          2. Phase 1: Scoping and Framing
            1. Defining the Focal Issue or Domain
              1. Problem Definition
                1. Boundary Setting
                  1. Scope Determination
                  2. Setting the Time Horizon
                    1. Short-Term Horizons
                      1. Medium-Term Horizons
                        1. Long-Term Horizons
                          1. Criteria for Time Frame Selection
                          2. Identifying Key Stakeholders
                            1. Internal Stakeholders
                              1. External Stakeholders
                                1. Stakeholder Mapping Techniques
                                  1. Stakeholder Engagement Planning
                                  2. Establishing Project Goals and Deliverables
                                    1. Clarifying Objectives
                                      1. Defining Success Criteria
                                        1. Setting Milestones
                                          1. Resource Requirements
                                          2. Methodology Selection
                                            1. Method Appropriateness
                                              1. Resource Constraints
                                                1. Stakeholder Preferences
                                              2. Phase 2: Scanning and Monitoring
                                                1. Environmental Scanning
                                                  1. PESTLE Analysis Framework
                                                    1. Political Factors
                                                      1. Regulatory Changes
                                                        1. Geopolitical Shifts
                                                          1. Policy Developments
                                                          2. Economic Factors
                                                            1. Market Dynamics
                                                              1. Economic Indicators
                                                              2. Social Factors
                                                                1. Societal Values and Lifestyles
                                                                  1. Cultural Shifts
                                                                  2. Technological Factors
                                                                    1. Emerging Technologies
                                                                      1. Technology Adoption Rates
                                                                        1. Innovation Patterns
                                                                        2. Environmental Factors
                                                                          1. Sustainability Issues
                                                                            1. Resource Availability
                                                                              1. Climate Change Impacts
                                                                          2. Horizon Scanning
                                                                            1. Scanning Techniques
                                                                              1. Information Sources
                                                                                1. Emerging Issues Identification
                                                                                  1. Signal Collection Systems
                                                                                  2. Weak Signal Detection
                                                                                    1. Signal Detection Methods
                                                                                      1. Signal Validation
                                                                                        1. Signal Amplification
                                                                                          1. Signal Tracking Systems
                                                                                          2. Data Collection and Management
                                                                                            1. Information Architecture
                                                                                              1. Data Quality Assurance
                                                                                                1. Knowledge Management Systems
                                                                                              2. Phase 3: Analysis and Interpretation
                                                                                                1. Trend Analysis
                                                                                                  1. Data Collection and Synthesis
                                                                                                    1. Quantitative Analysis Methods
                                                                                                      1. Qualitative Analysis Methods
                                                                                                        1. Trend Extrapolation Techniques
                                                                                                        2. Impact Assessment
                                                                                                          1. Impact Categories
                                                                                                            1. Impact Magnitude Estimation
                                                                                                              1. Impact Timing Analysis
                                                                                                              2. Probability Assessment
                                                                                                                1. Probability Estimation Methods
                                                                                                                  1. Risk Assessment Matrices
                                                                                                                    1. Uncertainty Quantification
                                                                                                                    2. Systems Analysis
                                                                                                                      1. Systems Thinking Principles
                                                                                                                        1. Mapping Interdependencies
                                                                                                                          1. Feedback Loop Identification
                                                                                                                            1. Leverage Point Analysis
                                                                                                                            2. Causal Analysis
                                                                                                                              1. Causal Layered Analysis
                                                                                                                                1. Litany Level
                                                                                                                                  1. Systemic Causes
                                                                                                                                    1. Worldview and Discourse
                                                                                                                                      1. Myth and Metaphor
                                                                                                                                      2. Root Cause Analysis
                                                                                                                                        1. Causal Mapping
                                                                                                                                        2. Pattern Recognition
                                                                                                                                          1. Pattern Identification Techniques
                                                                                                                                            1. Anomaly Detection
                                                                                                                                              1. Clustering Analysis
                                                                                                                                            2. Phase 4: Visioning and Scenario Development
                                                                                                                                              1. Scenario Planning
                                                                                                                                                1. Scenario Types
                                                                                                                                                  1. Normative Scenarios
                                                                                                                                                    1. Exploratory Scenarios
                                                                                                                                                      1. Challenge Scenarios
                                                                                                                                                      2. Scenario Construction Methods
                                                                                                                                                        1. Morphological Analysis
                                                                                                                                                          1. Cross-Impact Analysis
                                                                                                                                                            1. Intuitive Logics
                                                                                                                                                            2. Scenario Narratives
                                                                                                                                                              1. Storytelling Techniques
                                                                                                                                                                1. Narrative Structure
                                                                                                                                                                  1. Plausibility Testing
                                                                                                                                                                2. Vision Development
                                                                                                                                                                  1. Visioning Workshops
                                                                                                                                                                    1. Vision Statement Creation
                                                                                                                                                                      1. Vision Communication
                                                                                                                                                                        1. Vision Alignment
                                                                                                                                                                        2. Backcasting
                                                                                                                                                                          1. Backcasting Process Steps
                                                                                                                                                                            1. Pathway Identification
                                                                                                                                                                              1. Milestone Definition
                                                                                                                                                                                1. Barrier Analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                2. Strategic Option Generation
                                                                                                                                                                                  1. Option Identification
                                                                                                                                                                                    1. Option Evaluation
                                                                                                                                                                                      1. Portfolio Development
                                                                                                                                                                                    2. Phase 5: Integration and Implementation
                                                                                                                                                                                      1. Results Synthesis
                                                                                                                                                                                        1. Insight Integration
                                                                                                                                                                                          1. Key Finding Identification
                                                                                                                                                                                            1. Implication Analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                            2. Communication and Dissemination
                                                                                                                                                                                              1. Audience Analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                                1. Communication Strategies
                                                                                                                                                                                                  1. Reporting Formats
                                                                                                                                                                                                    1. Presentation Techniques
                                                                                                                                                                                                    2. Strategy Translation
                                                                                                                                                                                                      1. Strategic Alignment
                                                                                                                                                                                                        1. Action Planning
                                                                                                                                                                                                          1. Resource Allocation
                                                                                                                                                                                                            1. Implementation Roadmaps
                                                                                                                                                                                                            2. Monitoring and Updating
                                                                                                                                                                                                              1. Feedback Systems
                                                                                                                                                                                                                1. Performance Tracking
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1. Continuous Improvement
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1. Process Refinement

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                1. Foundations of Technology Foresight

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                3. Core Methodologies in Technology Foresight