Macroeconomics

  1. The Short-Run Trade-off Between Inflation and Unemployment
    1. The Phillips Curve
      1. Origins of the Phillips Curve
        1. A.W. Phillips' Original Study
          1. Historical Evidence
            1. Early Interpretations
            2. The Short-Run Phillips Curve
              1. Inverse Relationship
                1. Trade-off Concept
                  1. Policy Menu
                    1. Slope and Position
                    2. The Role of Expectations
                      1. Adaptive Expectations
                        1. Backward-Looking
                          1. Learning from Past
                          2. Rational Expectations
                            1. Forward-Looking
                              1. Efficient Use of Information
                              2. Expectations-Augmented Phillips Curve
                              3. The Long-Run Phillips Curve
                                1. Vertical Phillips Curve
                                  1. Natural Rate Hypothesis
                                    1. No Long-Run Trade-off
                                      1. Friedman-Phelps Critique
                                      2. The Expectations-Augmented Phillips Curve
                                        1. Mathematical Formulation
                                          1. Role of Expected Inflation
                                            1. Supply Shocks
                                            2. Reconciling Theory and Evidence
                                              1. 1960s Experience
                                                1. 1970s Stagflation
                                                  1. 1980s Disinflation
                                                    1. Modern Evidence
                                                  2. Shifts in the Phillips Curve
                                                    1. The Role of Supply Shocks
                                                      1. Oil Price Shocks
                                                        1. 1973 Oil Crisis
                                                          1. 1979 Oil Crisis
                                                          2. Other Supply Disturbances
                                                            1. Food Price Shocks
                                                              1. Natural Disasters
                                                                1. Productivity Shocks
                                                              2. Changes in Inflation Expectations
                                                                1. Anchored Expectations
                                                                  1. Unanchored Expectations
                                                                    1. Central Bank Credibility
                                                                    2. Structural Changes
                                                                      1. Labor Market Institutions
                                                                        1. Globalization Effects
                                                                          1. Technology Changes
                                                                          2. The Cost of Reducing Inflation
                                                                            1. The Sacrifice Ratio
                                                                              1. Historical Estimates
                                                                                1. Cross-Country Comparisons
                                                                                2. Gradual vs Rapid Disinflation
                                                                                  1. Rational Expectations and Costless Disinflation
                                                                                    1. Credible Policy
                                                                                      1. Lucas Critique
                                                                                      2. Policy Credibility
                                                                                        1. Central Bank Independence
                                                                                          1. Inflation Targeting
                                                                                      3. Modern Developments
                                                                                        1. The New Keynesian Phillips Curve
                                                                                          1. Microfoundations
                                                                                            1. Forward-Looking Expectations
                                                                                            2. Hybrid Phillips Curve
                                                                                              1. Backward and Forward Elements
                                                                                              2. Nonlinear Phillips Curve
                                                                                                1. State-Dependent Effects
                                                                                                2. The Flattening of the Phillips Curve
                                                                                                  1. Reduced Sensitivity
                                                                                                    1. Possible Explanations

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                                                                                                6. The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy

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                                                                                                8. Open-Economy Macroeconomics