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Rare events

Rare or extreme events are events that occur with low frequency, and often refers to infrequent events that have widespread impact and which might destabilize systems (for example, stock markets, ocea

Scottish Fiscal Commission

The Scottish Fiscal Commission (Scottish Gaelic: Coimisean Fiosgail na h-Alba) is a non-ministerial office. It was established by the Scottish Parliament to provide independent forecasts of taxes and

Backtesting

Backtesting is a term used in modeling to refer to testing a predictive model on historical data. Backtesting is a type of retrodiction, and a special type of cross-validation applied to previous time

International Futures

International Futures (IFs) is a global integrated assessment model designed to help with thinking strategically and systematically about key global systems (economic, demographic, education, health,

Prediction interval

In statistical inference, specifically predictive inference, a prediction interval is an estimate of an interval in which a future observation will fall, with a certain probability, given what has alr

Growth curve (statistics)

The growth curve model in statistics is a specific multivariate linear model, also known as GMANOVA (Generalized Multivariate Analysis-Of-Variance). It generalizes MANOVA by allowing post-matrices, as

Futures techniques

Futures techniques used in the multi-disciplinary field of futurology by futurists in Americas and Australasia, and futurology by futurologists in EU, include a diverse range of forecasting methods, i

International Institute of Forecasters

The International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) is a non-profit organization based in Medford, Massachusetts and founded in 1981 that describes itself as "dedicated to developing and furthering the g

Demand forecasting

Demand forecasting is known as the process of making future estimations in relation to customer demand over a specific period. Generally, demand forecasting will consider historical data and other ana

Atmospheric reanalysis

An atmospheric reanalysis (also: meteorological reanalysis and climate reanalysis) is a meteorological and climate data assimilation project which aims to assimilate historical atmospheric observation

Least-squares spectral analysis

Least-squares spectral analysis (LSSA) is a method of estimating a frequency spectrum, based on a least squares fit of sinusoids to data samples, similar to Fourier analysis. Fourier analysis, the mos

Proportionate reduction of error

Proportionate reduction of error (PRE) is the gain in precision of predicting dependent variable from knowing the independent variable (or a collection of multiple variables). It is a goodness of fit

Political forecasting

Political forecasting aims at forecasting the outcomes of political events. Political events can be a number of events such as diplomatic decisions, actions by political leaders and other areas relati

Fan chart (time series)

In time series analysis, a fan chart is a chart that joins a simple line chart for observed past data, by showing ranges for possible values of future data together with a line showing a central estim

Forecast skill

In the fields of forecasting and prediction, forecast skill or prediction skill is any measure of the accuracy and/or degree of association of prediction to an observation or estimate of the actual va

Forecast bias

A forecast bias occurs when there are consistent differences between actual outcomes and previously generated forecasts of those quantities; that is: forecasts may have a general tendency to be too hi

Mixed-data sampling

Econometric models involving data sampled at different frequencies are of general interest. Mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) is an econometric regression developed by Eric Ghysels with several co-authors.

Forecast attainment

Calculating forecast attainment periodically (monthly for example) provides visibility to the overall achievement of the plan and the total business bias. The time period of shipping activity should b

Consensus forecast

Used in a number of sciences, ranging from econometrics to meteorology, consensus forecasts are predictions of the future that are created by combining together several separate forecasts which have o

Tolerance interval

A tolerance interval is a statistical interval within which, with some confidence level, a specified proportion of a sampled population falls. "More specifically, a 100×p%/100×(1−α) tolerance interval

Ensemble forecasting

Ensemble forecasting is a method used in or within numerical weather prediction. Instead of making a single forecast of the most likely weather, a set (or ensemble) of forecasts is produced. This set

Aggregative Contingent Estimation Program

Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) was a program of the Office of Incisive Analysis (OIA) at the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA). The program ran from June 2010 until Jun

Probabilistic forecasting

Probabilistic forecasting summarizes what is known about, or opinions about, future events. In contrast to single-valued forecasts (such as forecasting that the maximum temperature at a given site on

Linear trend estimation

Linear trend estimation is a statistical technique to aid interpretation of data. When a series of measurements of a process are treated as, for example, a sequences or time series, trend estimation c

Tracking signal

In statistics and management science, a tracking signal monitors any forecasts that have been made in comparison with actuals, and warns when there are unexpected departures of the outcomes from the f

Data assimilation

Data assimilation is a mathematical discipline that seeks to optimally combine theory (usually in the form of a numerical model) with observations. There may be a number of different goals sought – fo

Linear prediction

Linear prediction is a mathematical operation where future values of a discrete-time signal are estimated as a linear function of previous samples. In digital signal processing, linear prediction is o

Market Explorer

Market Explorer is an online tool whose main purpose is to allow strategy and planning executives to see which countries offer the greatest opportunities for their products and services. The tool was

Mean directional accuracy

Mean directional accuracy (MDA), also known as mean direction accuracy, is a measure of prediction accuracy of a forecasting method in statistics. It compares the forecast direction (upward or downwar

Bayesian inference

Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes' theorem is used to update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. Bayesian inference

Forecasting

Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared (resolved) against what happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the

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