Decision Making

  1. Cognitive Aspects of Systems Decision Making
    1. Mental Models in Decision Making
      1. Mental Model Formation
        1. Experience-Based Learning
          1. Cultural Influences
            1. Professional Training
              1. Cognitive Shortcuts
              2. Mental Model Functions
                1. Information Filtering
                  1. Pattern Recognition
                    1. Prediction Generation
                      1. Action Guidance
                      2. Mental Model Limitations
                        1. Incomplete Representations
                          1. Outdated Assumptions
                            1. Cognitive Biases
                              1. Resistance to Change
                              2. Mental Model Improvement
                                1. Model Surfacing
                                  1. Model Testing
                                    1. Model Updating
                                      1. Model Sharing
                                    2. Systems Thinking Capabilities
                                      1. Dynamic Thinking
                                        1. Process Orientation
                                          1. Cause-Effect Chains
                                            1. Feedback Recognition
                                              1. Delay Awareness
                                              2. Structural Thinking
                                                1. Pattern Recognition
                                                  1. Archetype Identification
                                                    1. Leverage Point Identification
                                                      1. System Design Thinking
                                                      2. Operational Thinking
                                                        1. Circular Causality
                                                          1. Multiple Perspectives
                                                            1. Synthesis Ability
                                                              1. Holistic Perspective
                                                              2. Quantitative Thinking
                                                                1. Stock-Flow Reasoning
                                                                  1. Accumulation Understanding
                                                                    1. Rate Sensitivity
                                                                      1. Nonlinear Relationships
                                                                    2. Cognitive Biases in Systems Context
                                                                      1. Event Fixation
                                                                        1. Symptom Focus
                                                                          1. Quick Fix Preference
                                                                            1. Linear Thinking
                                                                              1. Single Cause Attribution
                                                                              2. Static Thinking
                                                                                1. Snapshot Perspective
                                                                                  1. Equilibrium Assumption
                                                                                    1. Change Resistance
                                                                                      1. Status Quo Bias
                                                                                      2. Correlation-Causation Confusion
                                                                                        1. False Causation
                                                                                          1. Spurious Relationships
                                                                                            1. Missing Variables
                                                                                              1. Reverse Causation
                                                                                              2. Feedback Misperception
                                                                                                1. Delay Underestimation
                                                                                                  1. Feedback Ignorance
                                                                                                    1. Linear Projection
                                                                                                      1. Exponential Growth Misunderstanding
                                                                                                    2. Developing Systems Intuition
                                                                                                      1. Pattern Recognition Skills
                                                                                                        1. Archetype Familiarity
                                                                                                          1. Behavior Pattern Identification
                                                                                                            1. Early Warning Recognition
                                                                                                              1. Trend Analysis
                                                                                                              2. Simulation Thinking
                                                                                                                1. What-If Analysis
                                                                                                                  1. Scenario Exploration
                                                                                                                    1. Sensitivity Testing
                                                                                                                      1. Policy Flight Simulators
                                                                                                                      2. Perspective Taking
                                                                                                                        1. Multiple Viewpoints
                                                                                                                          1. Stakeholder Empathy
                                                                                                                            1. Cultural Sensitivity
                                                                                                                              1. Temporal Perspectives

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                                                                                                                          5. Systemic Decision Making Process

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                                                                                                                          7. Tools and Methods for Systems Decision Making