Actuarial Science

5.

Ratemaking and Reserving for General Insurance

5.1.

Ratemaking Principles

5.1.1.

Goals of Ratemaking

5.1.1.1.

5.1.1.2.

5.1.1.3.

5.1.1.4.

5.1.2.

Rate Components

5.1.2.1.

Prospective Loss Costs

5.1.2.1.1.

Expected Claim Costs

5.1.2.1.2.

Trend Adjustments

5.1.2.1.3.

Catastrophe Provisions

5.1.2.1.4.

Risk Adjustments

5.1.2.2.

Expense Provision

5.1.2.2.1.

Acquisition Expenses

5.1.2.2.2.

General Expenses

5.1.2.2.3.

5.1.2.2.4.

Profit and Contingencies

5.1.2.3.

Profit and Contingency Loading

5.1.2.3.1.

Target Profit Margins

5.1.2.3.2.

5.1.2.3.3.

Contingency Reserves

5.1.2.3.4.

Competitive Considerations

5.1.2.4.

Investment Income Consideration

5.1.2.4.1.

Investment Returns

5.1.2.4.2.

Cash Flow Timing

5.1.2.4.3.

5.1.2.4.4.

Credit for Investment Income

5.1.3.

Ratemaking Methods

5.1.3.1.

Pure Premium Method

5.1.3.1.1.

Loss Cost Calculation

5.1.3.1.2.

5.1.3.1.3.

Credibility Adjustments

5.1.3.2.

Loss Ratio Method

5.1.3.2.1.

Current Loss Ratios

5.1.3.2.2.

Target Loss Ratios

5.1.3.2.3.

Rate Change Calculation

5.1.3.3.

Judgment Method

5.1.3.3.1.

5.1.3.3.2.

Market Considerations

5.1.3.3.3.

Regulatory Constraints

5.1.3.4.

Frequency-Severity Method

5.1.3.4.1.

Claim Frequency Analysis

5.1.3.4.2.

Claim Severity Analysis

5.1.3.4.3.

Combined Analysis

5.1.4.

Trend and Loss Development

5.1.4.1.

5.1.4.1.1.

Economic Inflation

5.1.4.1.2.

Social Inflation

5.1.4.1.3.

Frequency Trends

5.1.4.1.4.

Severity Trends

5.1.4.2.

Loss Development Factors

5.1.4.2.1.

Development Patterns

5.1.4.2.2.

5.1.4.2.3.

Selection Methods

5.1.4.3.

Inflation Adjustment

5.1.4.3.1.

5.1.4.3.2.

5.1.4.3.3.

Projection Methods

5.2.

Reserving for Unpaid Claims

5.2.1.

Types of Reserves

5.2.1.1.

5.2.1.1.1.

Individual Case Estimates

5.2.1.1.2.

Average Case Reserves

5.2.1.1.3.

Bulk Case Reserves

5.2.1.1.4.

Quality Control

5.2.1.2.

Incurred But Not Reported Reserves

5.2.1.2.1.

IBNR Definition

5.2.1.2.2.

Estimation Methods

5.2.1.2.3.

Uncertainty Assessment

5.2.1.2.4.

Regulatory Requirements

5.2.1.3.

5.2.1.3.1.

Reopened Claims

5.2.1.3.2.

Development on Known Claims

5.2.1.3.3.

Estimation Methods

5.2.2.

Loss Development Triangles

5.2.2.1.

Construction of Triangles

5.2.2.1.1.

Data Organization

5.2.2.1.2.

Accident Year vs. Policy Year

5.2.2.1.3.

Paid vs. Incurred Triangles

5.2.2.1.4.

Data Quality Issues

5.2.2.2.

Cumulative and Incremental Triangles

5.2.2.2.1.

Cumulative Development

5.2.2.2.2.

Incremental Development

5.2.2.2.3.

Conversion Methods

5.2.3.

Loss Reserving Methods

5.2.3.1.

Chain-Ladder Method

5.2.3.1.1.

Development Factor Calculation

5.2.3.1.2.

Ultimate Loss Projection

5.2.3.1.3.

Reserve Calculation

5.2.3.1.4.

Assumptions and Limitations

5.2.3.2.

Expected Loss Ratio Method

5.2.3.2.1.

Expected Loss Ratios

5.2.3.2.2.

Ultimate Loss Calculation

5.2.3.2.3.

Reserve Calculation

5.2.3.3.

Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method

5.2.3.3.1.

Combination Approach

5.2.3.3.2.

Credibility Weighting

5.2.3.3.3.

Ultimate Loss Calculation

5.2.3.4.

Frequency-Severity Method

5.2.3.4.1.

Claim Count Projections

5.2.3.4.2.

Severity Projections

5.2.3.4.3.

Ultimate Loss Calculation

5.2.3.5.

Cape Cod Method

5.2.3.5.1.

Exposure-Based Approach

5.2.3.5.2.

Ultimate Loss Calculation

5.2.3.5.3.

Parameter Estimation

5.2.4.

Reserve Adequacy and Monitoring

5.2.4.1.

Adequacy Testing

5.2.4.2.

5.2.4.3.

Sensitivity Analysis

5.2.4.4.

Monitoring Procedures

5.2.5.

Uncertainty in Reserving

5.2.5.1.

Sources of Uncertainty

5.2.5.2.

Quantification Methods

5.2.5.3.

Confidence Intervals

5.2.5.4.

Risk Assessment

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