Category: Probability fallacies

Confusion of the inverse
Confusion of the inverse, also called the conditional probability fallacy or the inverse fallacy, is a logical fallacy whereupon a conditional probability is equated with its inverse; that is, given t
Misuse of p-values
Misuse of p-values is common in scientific research and scientific education. p-values are often used or interpreted incorrectly; the American Statistical Association states that p-values can indicate
Base rate fallacy
The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect or base rate bias, is a type of fallacy in which people tend to ignore the base rate (i.e., general prevalence) in favor of the individuating infor
Appeal to probability
An appeal to probability (or appeal to possibility, also known as possibiliter ergo probabiliter, "possibly, therefore probably") is the logical fallacy of taking something for granted because it woul
Law of averages
The law of averages is the commonly held belief that a particular outcome or event will, over certain periods of time, occur at a frequency that is similar to its probability. Depending on context or